论文
arXiv
GeoAI
GIS
Agent
GeoSimulation
中文标题
AgentHomeID——基于智能体的建筑存量转型建模:面向政策评估与基础设施规划的多尺度框架
English Title
AgentHomeID - Agent-based modelling of building stock transformation: A multi-scale framework for policy assessment and infrastructure planning
Helen Ganal, Sarah Becker, Sascha Holzhauer, Thilo Glißmann, Friedrich Krebs, Martin Braun, Philipp Härtel
发布时间
2026/9/5 06:55:20
来源类型
preprint
语言
en
摘要
中文对照

建筑部门脱碳对于实现气候目标至关重要,但现有模型极少能刻画系统层面的转型动态与异质性个体投资决策之间的交互作用。本研究提出AgentHomeID,一种针对建筑存量演化的基于智能体的模型,该模型在单体建筑及其业主层面显式表征业主行为、技术经济约束及监管框架。模型区分自住业主、私人房东和机构业主三类主体,其支付意愿(WTP)参数源自实证决策者研究;模型既可运行于代表性建筑原型之上,亦可接入源自地理信息系统(GIS)的真实建筑数据。我们通过三项应用展示该模型的灵活性:在国家尺度上,针对德国至2045年的情景分析表明,取消具有约束力的可再生能源供暖要求将显著推高终端能源需求,即使建筑围护结构改造水平保持不变;同时,补贴分配与投资活动在不同业主类型及收入四分位组间呈现显著分化,最低收入四分位组持续存在投资不足现象;在区域尺度上,针对德国某配电网规划区域的自下而上模拟显示,NUTS-3层级的热泵采纳呈现空间集聚特征,其数量级与空间分布均明显区别于自上而下的聚合预测结果;在城市街区尺度上,相同模拟可解析至变电站层级的负荷异质性,并揭示由热泵、电动汽车及光伏共同驱动的综合系统峰值,并不与各单项技术的峰值时刻重合。在全部三个尺度上,业主异质性与本地结构均实质性地塑造了转型路径,表明

English Original

Decarbonising the building sector is central to meeting climate targets, yet existing models rarely capture the interaction between system-level transformation dynamics and heterogeneous individual investment decisions. This work presents AgentHomeID, an agent-based model of building stock evolution in which owner behaviour, techno-economic constraints, and regulatory frameworks are represented explicitly at the level of individual buildings and their owners. The model differentiates owner-occupiers, private landlords, and institutional owners, using willingness-to-pay (WTP) parameters estimated from empirical decision-maker studies, and operates on both representative building archetypes and real building data derived from geographic information systems (GIS). We demonstrate this versatility across three applications. At national scale, scenario analysis for Germany to 2045 shows that removing binding renewable heating requirements substantially raises final energy demand even where envelope refurbishment is unchanged, and that subsidy allocation and investment activity diverge sharply across owner types and income quartiles, with the lowest quartiles persistently underinvesting. At regional scale, bottom-up simulation for a German distribution grid planning region yields spatially concentrated heat pump uptake at NUTS-3 level that differs from aggregated top-down projections in both magnitude and spatial distribution. At urban block level, the same simulations resolve substation-level load heterogeneity and show that integrated system peaks driven by heat pumps, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics do not coincide with individual technology peaks. Across all three scales, owner heterogeneity and local structure materially shape transition pathways, indicating that they should be represented explicitly in models used for policy assessment and infrastructure planning.

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元数据
arXiv2609.05763v1
来源arXiv
类型论文
抽取状态raw
关键词
GeoAI
GIS
Agent
GeoSimulation
eess.SY