大都市区正同步推进多项干预措施,以提升交通流动性、可达性及能源效率,亟需集成化工具来理解这些政策如何相互作用,进而影响出行行为、能源消耗及基础设施需求。本文以‘照常情景’(BAU)为基准,评估电气化、货运需求管理、道路收费、停车改革及公共交通扩展等政策组合对2050年芝加哥大都市交通系统的综合影响。我们采用POLARIS——一个基于2019年条件校准的大规模智能体建模框架,在伊利诺伊州东北部七县区域模拟九种政策情景。该框架协同模拟基于活动的客运需求、内生性货运生成、多模式交通分配及公共交通运营,并针对各情景优化充电基础设施布局与货运作业。研究发现:在高电气化情景下,总燃料质量较BAU下降68%,而总充电能耗则增至BAU的约4–8倍,峰值电力需求接近4 GW,且高度集中于城市核心区;货运管理政策通过增加货运行程频次但缩短单程距离,降低了货运车辆行驶里程(Freight VMT);智能道路收费对降低小汽车车辆行驶里程(Auto VMT)效果最为显著;公共交通扩展使客运量较BAU提升18%。本研究首次为芝加哥地区构建了集成式、基于智能体的情景分析框架,联合评估上述多项干预措施,为区域交通规划、电网基础设施投资及减排目标实现提供了可操作的决策依据,并凸显了针对性充电桩升级与政策组合协同实施的重要价值。
Metropolitan regions are simultaneously pursuing several interventions to improve mobility, accessibility, and energy efficiency, necessitating integrated tools to understand how these policies interact to affect travel behavior, energy use, and infrastructure needs. This paper evaluates the combined impacts of electrification, freight demand management, road pricing, parking reform, and transit expansion on the Chicago metropolitan transportation system in 2050, using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario as the baseline. We employ POLARIS, a large-scale agent-based modeling framework calibrated to 2019 conditions, to simulate nine policy scenarios for the seven-county northeastern Illinois region. The framework co-simulates activity-based passenger demand, endogenous freight generation, multimodal traffic assignment, and transit operations, with charging infrastructure and freight operations optimized for each case. Our findings reveal that under the high electrification scenario, total fuel mass declines by 68% while total charging energy increases by approximately 4-8x from BAU, resulting in a peak power demand near 4 GW concentrated in the urban core. Furthermore, freight management policies reduce freight VMT by increasing trip frequency but shortening distances, smart road pricing most effectively reduces auto VMT, and transit expansion boosts ridership by 18% relative to BAU. By presenting the first integrated, agent-based scenario framework for Chicago that jointly evaluates these interventions, this study provides actionable insights for regional transportation planning, grid infrastructure investment, and emissions reduction, highlighting the value of targeted charger upgrades and coordinated policy bundles.