地球静止轨道(GEO)承载了全球大部分卫星通信收入。国际电信联盟(ITU)通过各国主管部门协调并登记频率指配及相应轨道位置,但未就经度位置设定市场价格或产权凭证。本文探讨商业运营商在此行政管理体制下如何在GEO中进行卫星定位。借助空间排序模型,我们发现商业卫星的部署数量与某一GEO经度下方可触达收入成正比,并按空间折现率依观测角予以折现。我们估计的部署弹性接近1,即某一经度上方的卫星数量随其可触达收入同比例增长。相比之下,政府卫星的部署则与某一GEO经度所覆盖的人口规模成正比。我们通过实证验证了该商业模型:基于2012年部署数据估计的参数能较好预测2021年的分布;且该模型拒绝将中国GDP全部视为国际商业卫星舰队的可触达市场。反事实分析表明,低地球轨道(LEO)系统的竞争可能使GEO使用重心向亚太地区倾斜,而更高的空间折现率则可能使GEO使用进一步集中于高GDP国家。
The geostationary orbit (GEO) carries most of the world's satellite communications revenue. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) coordinates and records frequency assignments and associated orbital positions through national administrations, without creating a market price or property title for longitude. We ask how commercial operators locate along GEO within this administrative regime. Using a spatial sorting model, we show that commercial satellites are placed in proportion to the reachable income below a GEO longitude, discounted by viewing angle at a spatial discount rate. We estimate a placement elasticity close to one, so that satellite counts above a longitude rise proportionately with reachable income. Government satellites, by contrast, are placed in proportion to the population a GEO longitude covers. We validate the commercial model by showing that parameters estimated on 2012 placements predict the 2021 distribution well and that the model rejects treating Chinese GDP as fully addressable to the international commercial fleet. Counterfactuals suggest that competition from low-Earth orbit (LEO) systems may tilt GEO usage toward Asia-Pacific, while higher spatial discounting may concentrate it over high-GDP countries.