论文
arXiv
Trajectory
Mobility
ComplexNetwork
中文标题
灾害诱发的行为改变使社会网络向联结型纽带重构
English Title
Disaster-induced behavioral change restructures social networks toward bonding ties
Vaidehi Raipat, Daniel Aldrich, Takahiro Yabe
发布时间
2026/6/2 02:57:13
来源类型
preprint
语言
en
摘要
中文对照

环境冲击引发的人口迁移重塑了社会互动的空间组织,往往导致既有社会纽带断裂并削弱社区凝聚力。尽管社会资本被广泛视为韧性的重要决定因素,但其在扰动后的动态重构过程仍缺乏量化研究。本文构建了一个空间嵌入式动态网络框架,将社会资本操作化为基于大规模移动数据推断出的重复相遇机会网络,并在‘第三空间’构建时序共在性网络,以追踪社会—空间网络在扰动下的重组过程。我们将该框架应用于受2021年科罗拉多州马歇尔山火影响的社区。研究发现,灾害诱发的迁移导致社会—空间网络显著收缩,加权平均度下降48%。为识别潜在机制,我们构建了两种反事实模型:一种为随机节点移除模型,另一种为行为知情模型,后者依据个体预估的撤离倾向移除节点。两种反事实模型均预测出远低于实际观测值的连通性,表明灾后连通性系统性地高于仅由迁移行为所预期的水平。网络结构分析显示,这种残余连通性主要集中于社会人口学特征相似个体之间的联结型纽带(bonding ties),而桥接型纽带(bridging ties)则相对脆弱。此外,互动 increasingly 集中于第三空间,表明这些场所作为空间锚点,在扰动下维系了社会纽带的存续。

English Original

Population displacement following environmental shocks reshapes the spatial organization of social interactions, often fragmenting existing ties and weakening community cohesion. Although social capital is widely recognized as a key determinant of resilience, its dynamic restructuring after disruption remains poorly quantified. Here, we develop a spatially embedded, dynamic network framework that operationalizes social capital as a network of repeated encounter opportunities inferred from large-scale mobility data. We construct temporal co-presence networks at third places to track how socio-spatial networks reorganize under disruption. We apply this framework to communities affected by the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado. We find that disaster-induced displacement leads to substantial contraction of socio-spatial networks, with mean weighted degree decreasing by 48%. To isolate underlying mechanisms, we develop two counterfactual models: a random node removal model and a behaviour-informed model in which individuals are removed based on their estimated propensity to evacuate. Both counterfactuals predict substantially lower connectivity than observed, indicating that post-disaster connectivity remains systematically higher than expected based on displacement behavior alone. Structural analysis of the network reveals that this residual connectivity is disproportionately concentrated among bonding ties between sociodemographically similar individuals, while bridging ties are comparatively fragile. Furthermore, interaction becomes increasingly located around third places, suggesting that these places act as spatial anchors for the persistence of social ties under disruption. Together, these findings provide a first empirical view of how behavioral responses to disruption shape community resilience through the reorganization of social networks.

元数据
arXiv2606.02790v1
来源arXiv
类型论文
抽取状态raw
关键词
Trajectory
Mobility
ComplexNetwork
physics.soc-ph