随着城市化进程和气候变化的推进，城市热岛效应日益频繁且加剧。为制定有效的缓解策略，城市需要详细的气温数据。然而，基于传统机器学习模型和有限数据基础设施的预测分析方法在欠覆盖区域常导致不准确的预测。在此背景下，基于全球非结构化数据训练的地理空间基础模型展现出强大的泛化能力，且仅需极少微调，为传统方法受限的场景提供了替代方案。本研究对地理空间基础模型进行微调，以预测未来气候情景下的城市地表温度，并通过模拟植被策略探讨其对土地覆盖变化的响应。微调后的模型像素级下采样误差低于1.74 °C，且与地面实测模式一致，表现出最高达3.62 °C的外推能力。

As urbanization and climate change progress, urban heat island effects are becoming more frequent and severe. To formulate effective mitigation plans, cities require detailed air temperature data. However, predictive analytics methods based on conventional machine learning models and limited data infrastructure often provide inaccurate predictions, especially in underserved areas. In this context, geospatial foundation models trained on unstructured global data demonstrate strong generalization and require minimal fine-tuning, offering an alternative for predictions where traditional approaches are limited. This study fine-tunes a geospatial foundation model to predict urban land surface temperatures under future climate scenarios and explores its response to land cover changes using simulated vegetation strategies. The fine-tuned model achieved pixel-wise downscaling errors below 1.74 °C and aligned with ground truth patterns, demonstrating an extrapolation capacity up to 3.62 °C.