预测个体在不同地点之间的移动性在交通科学、空间经济学、社会学及诸多其他领域具有实际应用价值。一百多年来，研究者提出了多种人类移动性预测模型，其中类比于牛顿万有引力定律的引力模型被广泛应用。另一经典模型为介在机会（Intervening Opportunity, IO）模型，该模型指出个体对目的地的选择既取决于目的地本身所提供的机会，也取决于起始地与目的地之间存在的介在机会。基于个体选择行为视角构建的IO模型，近年来催生了大量新型IO类模型。尽管这些IO类模型可在特定时空尺度上实现高精度预测，但尚缺乏一种能够刻画个体在不同时空尺度下目的地选择行为的普适IO类模型。本文提出一种普适的机会模型，该模型纳入两种人类行为倾向：探索倾向与谨慎倾向。本模型为IO类模型建立了新框架，且涵盖经典辐射模型（radiation model）与机会优先选择模型（opportunity priority selection model）。此外，我们利用多种移动性数据验证了该模型的预测能力。结果表明，相较于既有IO类模型，本模型可更准确地预测人类移动性；同时，该模型有助于深入理解不同类型人类移动中个体目的地选择行为的内在机制。

Predicting human mobility between locations has practical applications in transportation science, spatial economics, sociology and many other fields. For more than 100 years, many human mobility prediction models have been proposed, among which the gravity model analogous to Newton's law of gravitation is widely used. Another classical model is the intervening opportunity (IO) model, which indicates that an individual selecting a destination is related to both the destination's opportunities and the intervening opportunities between the origin and the destination. The IO model established from the perspective of individual selection behavior has recently triggered the establishment of many new IO class models. Although these IO class models can achieve accurate prediction at specific spatiotemporal scales, an IO class model that can describe an individual's destination selection behavior at different spatiotemporal scales is still lacking. Here, we develop a universal opportunity model that considers two human behavioral tendencies: one is the exploratory tendency, and the other is the cautious tendency. Our model establishes a new framework in IO class models and covers the classical radiation model and opportunity priority selection model. Furthermore, we use various mobility data to demonstrate our model's predictive ability. The results show that our model can better predict human mobility than previous IO class models. Moreover, this model can help us better understand the underlying mechanism of the individual's destination selection behavior in different types of human mobility.