本文将现有抽象模型扩展并应用于巴西的一个实证大都市区域。该模型名为SEAL(空间经济代理实验室),构建了一个支持公共政策事前分析的框架。模型旨在利用官方数据和各市的空间边界,实现政策实验。当前版本涵盖住房、劳动力和商品三个市场。家庭成员会经历年龄变化、消费、进入劳动力市场以及房屋交易。各市征收单一消费税,并将税收投入用于提升生活质量。我们检验了由多个市合并而成的单一大都市政府是否最符合其居民利益。20次模拟运行的初步结果表明,这种情况可能成立。未来的发展方向包括提升模型性能,以支持更高比例人口及更多次运行,从而增强模型的稳健性。
This paper extends and adapts an existing abstract model into an empirical metropolitan region in Brazil. The model - named SEAL: a Spatial Economic Agent-based Lab - comprehends a framework to enable public policy ex-ante analysis. The aim of the model is to use official data and municipalities spatial boundaries to allow for policy experimentation. The current version considers three markets: housing, labor and goods. Families' members age, consume, join the labor market and trade houses. A single consumption tax is collected by municipalities that invest back into quality of life improvements. We test whether a single metropolitan government - which is an aggregation of municipalities - would be in the best interest of its citizens. Preliminary results for 20 simulation runs indicate that it may be the case. Future developments include improving performance to enable running of higher percentage of the population and a number of runs that make the model more robust.