理解跳跃式发展以改善城市治理：基于主体的建模与地块级证据

> 下面是被转发的邮件： > > 发件人: Google 学术搜索快讯 <[email protected]> > 主题: 推荐的文章 > 日期: 2026年11月2日 GMT+811:34:17 > 收件人: [email protected] > > [HTML] Linking Greenery Visibility Analysis and Urban Tree Planting Decisions by Quantifying the Visible Greenery Provision of Individual Street Trees <https://scholar.google.com/scholar_url?url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1618866726005066&hl=zh-CN&sa=X&d=2574230192753214277&ei=uQToaoi_FdrPieoP8OvCmQw&scisig=AIL1Nv59k98vBk9jej6o-5p-xV36&oi=scholaralrt&html=&pos=0&folt=rel&fols=> > X Zhang, F Ludwig - Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 2026 > Visible greenery, an important contribution of urban street trees, has been shown to > correlate with the spatial quality of streets, as well as with people's health and well- > being. However, existing approaches provide limited support for quantifying the site … >  保存 <https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=zh-CN&update_op=email_library_add&info=RQMksbiAuSMJ&citsig=AHQf-GIAAAAAbMk4OcsXo8c5jxs35lUGUsnPXn0>  速读重点 <https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=info:RQMksbiAuSMJ:scholar.google.com/&scioq=&output=scholaralrtaa&hl=zh-CN&html=&pos=0&folt=rel&fols=> > [HTML] The natural buffer: An exploration of regional differences in Urban Park greenspace and noise levels <https://scholar.google.com/scholar_url?url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590252026002230&hl=zh-CN&sa=X&d=17714103899157863228&ei=uQToaoi_FdrPieoP8OvCmQw&scisig=AIL1Nv5o1yVr1t7Kkfsjo0RdQpoy&oi=scholaralrt&html=&pos=1&folt=rel&fols=> > U Nwanaji-Enwerem, J Yang, JI Levy, KM Mwenda… - City and Environment …, 2026 > Evidence of the adverse effects of noise exposure on human health is rapidly > growing. Defined as unwanted or harmful sound, noise permeates several > environmental spaces, including urban parks. Urban parks are a common form of … >  保存 <https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=zh-CN&update_op=email_library_add&info=PJuql6Qj1fUJ&citsig=AHQf-GIAAAAAbMk4OVqUK-REz1SoGgrZuyZBVtg>  速读重点 <https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=info:PJuql6Qj1fUJ:scholar.google.com/&scioq=&output=scholaralrtaa&hl=zh-CN&html=&pos=1&folt=rel&fols=> > Multi-city Comparison of Land Surface Temperature Responses to Local Climate Zones in Three Major Chinese Cities, China <https://scholar.google.com/scholar_url?url=https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-026-1696-5&hl=zh-CN&sa=X&d=4207431291641038629&ei=uQToaoi_FdrPieoP8OvCmQw&scisig=AIL1Nv5iSde13-ggCb5nZV6oet7T&oi=scholaralrt&html=&pos=2&folt=rel&fols=> > H Wang, C Yang, Z Ren - Chinese Geographical Science, 2026 > The local climate zone (LCZ) has been widely employed to explore the effects of > urban morphology on urban climate to mitigate negative impacts from heatwaves. > However, comparative studies on the relationships between LCZ and land surface … >  保存 <https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=zh-CN&update_op=email_library_add&info=JYcgw3fMYzoJ&citsig=AHQf-GIAAAAAbMk4OVqu62qunGtuXtlNZFqQ2kw> > [HTML] Understanding Leapfrog Development for Better Urban Governance: Agent-Based Modeling and Parcel-Level Evidence <https://scholar.google.com/scholar_url?url=https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/10/11/622&hl=zh-CN&sa=X&d=4286428482610839373&ei=uQToaoi_FdrPieoP8OvCmQw&scisig=AIL1Nv5kBmzjC7LZdxjbVdIgDSKi&oi=scholaralrt&html=&pos=3&folt=rel&fols=> > Y Chen, H Guo, C Parasa - Urban Science, 2026 > Leapfrog development occurs when distant parcels are built while closer > developable land remains vacant. It is an urban-governance problem because > infrastructure and service obligations can be extended outward before existing … >  保存 <https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=zh-CN&update_op=email_library_add&info=Tb8ilf5zfDsJ&citsig=AHQf-GIAAAAAbMk4OXL0pMXDuUBXfiuMQJv-r7s>  速读重点 <https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=info:Tb8ilf5zfDsJ:scholar.google.com/&scioq=&output=scholaralrtaa&hl=zh-CN&html=&pos=3&folt=rel&fols=> > 查看所有推荐内容 <https://scholar.google.com/scholar?sciupd=2&hl=zh-CN> > > Google 学术搜索发送此邮件，是因为您关注了为您的个人学术档案 <https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=zh-CN&user=JZ9U7ZIAAAAJ>推荐的新文章。 > > 取消快讯 <https://scholar.google.com/scholar_alerts?view_op=cancel_alert_options&email_for_op=yaoy%40cug.edu.cn&alert_id=YAp0Ef-vDFoJ&hl=zh-CN&citsig=AHQf-GIAAAAAavp5uU6uaO0QSAuZOKmv8KNl9Og> 【联网核验的原文摘要】 Leapfrog development occurs when distant parcels are built while closer developable land remains vacant. It is an urban-governance problem because infrastructure and service obligations can be extended outward before existing service areas are fully used. We extend an agent-based model of a thinly traded land market so that buyers value nearby open space by how long they expect it to persist. In the simulations, open-space preference alone leaves a sharp urban edge, whereas a graded valuation of expected persistence produces a gradual urban-rural gradient; an announced phasing schedule can also produce it, depending on settings. Distance-rising development fees and heterogeneous agricultural rent do not. A 2015–2023 parcel panel for Sedgwick County, Kansas, shows a gradual decline in developed share, from about 95% within three miles of downtown Wichita to below 10% beyond thirteen miles. The pattern is consistent with the expectation scenarios and inconsistent with the sharp-edge scenarios, although wider than any simulated scenario. Policy experiments suggest that enforced phasing yields compact development, at some cost in housing supply, whereas phasing that is announced but not enforced spreads it. For local governments, credibility, not announcement, appears to be the lever.